What guys will make American Idol’s Top 12? The dude who knows makes his picks

You want an intro? Read it HERE.

On to the picks (for the record, I could see me getting two right and the field still being crazy strong).

THE GUYS

1. Savion Wright

One of these things is not like the other ...

One of these things is not like the other …


WHY AMERICA WILL: Contestants who get it usually get in. I’ve had an affinity for Savion after he was screwed over last season despite having the requisite skills to be a strong contestant. He’s a WGWG without the White Guy and it’s really going to blow people’s simple minds. The comeback story is always a good one and with the love he’s gotten on screen, I can’t see America doing him like the producers did last year.
WHY AMERICA WON’T: He doesn’t stand out. You remember Adam Ezegelian because he’s the fat guy with poofy hair, Daniel because he looks 10, Qaasim and Quentin because they’re Qaasim and Quentin, Trevor because he’s the nerd. If Savion lacks anything it’s a marketable “it” factor and that has hurt contestants in the past.
WTF is Chris Pine doing on Idol?

WTF is Chris Pine doing on Idol?


2. Clark Beckham
WHY AMERICA WILL: Good looking dude plays piano and sings Ray Charles? Yeah, that usually does the trick. He’s top four of the guys on voice alone and if the House of Blues performance showed anything, it’s that he’s gonna sing a lot of big songs. He does that tonight, ding. See ya in the Top 12.
WHY AMERICA WON’T: He could be the casualty of the numbers, which is crazy because I could see him winning this season. If anyone takes this spot it’s another musician, so this could be a Trevor for Clark swap.

3. Daniel Seavey
WHY AMERICA WILL: America loves the teenage heartthrobs, which is super creepy sometimes. I’m not the world’s biggest Seavey fan – still think he’d be better off coming back in two years or so – but for every one like me, there’s 10 teenage girls who would marry him yesterday. Seavey’s safe enough for the church-going crew and won’t do anything controversial. Plus, he’s about as perfect as perfect gets when it comes to the producers dream contestant.
WHY AMERICA WON’T: His voice goes during his performance or America just refuses to vote like someone who shouldn’t be allowed to watch J-Lo’s music videos. He could end up being too white for the voters or maybe America just decides they don’t want to watch a 15-year old sing songs older than him every week, which would save us from Harry’s “do you even know what that song means” critiques.

4. Qaasim Middleton
WHY AMERICA WILL: Because America wants to see a contestant it hasn’t seen before. Qaasim’s “Satisfaction” performance was a little out of my realm, but he’s going to connect with a lot of people who vote. He’s a black Casey Abrams and Casey was beloved. Plus, America wants what I want – as much screen time as possible for his mom.
WHY AMERICA WON’T: He’s a little too weird or he does some crazy interpretation of a song tonigth that really confuses everyone. Or he just gets out performed by Quentin Alexander. As much as I think he’s going to make it, I’m not going to stand mouth agape if he gets booted.

5. Mark Andrew
WHY AMERICA WILL: Because WGWGs, that’s why. He’s the best of the guitarists and has a terrific sound that plays extremely well. Plus, I don’t think producers would throw out Adam Lasher unless they were very confident Mark would make the Top 12 (unless it’s a conspiracy and they’re trying to make sure WGWGs don’t make it like they did in Season 12). My prediction? Leading vote getter, although I don’t think they’ll make that info available.
WHY AMERICA WON’T: Perhaps he’s a little too old or a little too grungy. This could end up as Trevor Douglas’ spot or even Nick Fradiani’s. Maybe people don’t like it when they cry following a heartfelt performance. Maybe they don’t like his hat. I’m out of serious ideas because not including him would be an egregious mistake.

6. Adam Ezegelian
WHY AMERICA WILL: Caleb Johnson. This pick is totally based on Caleb Johnson. Caleb played better than I ever expected and Adam is in the same category. His voice is the biggest of the bunch (maybe Clark’s; either way, it’s close) and it matches his personality. I can’t see America not loving the guy whose body is as poofy as his hair.
WHY AMERICA WON’T: Maybe he gets pegged more as a sideshow than a singer. I could see the judges turning on him simply to get someone else through because Caleb’s brand of music isn’t exactly burning up the charts. Adam will be a fun contestant, but fun doesn’t necessarily mean the best.

THE REST

First Cut – Michael Simeon
WHY: Two words – Aaron Kelly. Who? Exactly. Aaron Kelly was the last white pop singer to make the Top 12. That was six years ago. This isn’t a judgment of Simeon’s voice or talent. It’s simply stating America doesn’t vote for the white guy who sings pop songs. Too bad, because watching him make J-Lo melt all season would be AWESOME.

Second Cut – Riley Bria
WHY: Because two tiny teenaged guitarists aren’t making the finals. Seavey is cut out of the Archuleta mode and while a talented bluesy guitarist like Bria made it last year – Ben Briley – their voices were significantly different. I’m not totally counting him out because he could play the country angle and steal a spot.

Third Cut – Nick Fradiani
WHY: Unless there are more late-20s to late-30s people watching the show than I can account for, his selection of music may haunt him. He’s got that special gene where if you told me he was 22 I’d believe you, so I can see him being popular with the younger crowd, but I don’t know if enough of his particular audience watches Idol. Of course, he could just do Adam Levine songs and hope America gets confused. If he gets in, that means Marc Andrews doesn’t.

Fourth Cut: Trevor Douglas
WHY: Sorry nerd, no dorks allowed. Again, it’s a numbers game. I don’t know that Trevor gets enough of a push to surpass some of the other guitar guys and Clark Beckham’s House of Blues performance turned him from a “who is that” do a “holy god this guy’s gonna win. I like Trevor and want to see him just to get a Weezer song in there, but this guys’ field is t-o-u-g-h.

Fifth Cut: Quentin Alexander
WHY: Qaasim Middleton. I don’t see America voting for two eclectic black dudes. They aren’t blond, pretty or country enough. What I’m terrified about is one of them won’t get through and that in itself would be a crime. Is Quentin good enough? Uh, yes. Would he be a great contestant? Uh, yes. It comes down to numbers are there just aren’t enough spots, but I’ve been wrong in the past.

Sixth Cut: Rayvon Owen
WHY: There was going to be a tough cut and this is all based on feel. Rayvon getting the boot says more about Adam Ezegelian’s popularity than his talent. I’ll take Rayvon in the field, but I see him getting squeezed even if I 100 percent believe he deserves a spot.

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