With who’s left on American Idol, only one thing is certain – someone is getting screwed

Probably how most of America will react Thursday night.

Probably how most of America will react Thursday night.

People are gonna be pissed off Thursday night.

Seven of the 12 performers make it through on American Idol this week but looking at the 12, you can make a damn solid case for every one. You can come up with just as many reasons why someone shouldn’t make it as opposed to why someone should and that just feeds into the fact that this rounds of auditions is a farce.

The Idol team knew which 14 it wanted to get through these past two weeks and probably had a list of three or four other contestants it had potentially making it, essentially creating a head-to-head matchup within the weeks.

When you consider who made it last week, it seems a little easier to figure out who they’re sending to the Top 14, who they want as a Top 8 person and who they want to see in a sing-off. It had to have been that way because otherwise the second group is performing at a huge disadvantage; you think this week’s 12 would have preferred to sing against some of the people who went last week or waited to see if their genre fit after seven were already through?

Here are the picks. Contestants are listed in alphabetical order and honestly, if four of these are right that’s a W for this guy.

Jenn Blosil

WHY SHE’S OUT: She’s too spacey? She sounds too British? It’s strange than the foreign twang works for the guys but Idol has a history of booting girls who have a similar sound. Really can’t come up with a good reason to kick her out and the judges shouldn’t have one either.
WHY SHE’S IN: She’s been the most consistent of the bunch since the start. Even the performance she thought she was bad she was amazing and that scratchiness in her voice plays well. Her ditzy attitude is more endearing than appalling, so it works in her favor; but the real fun with Blosil is watching her go from spaceshot to legend the second she steps behind the mic.
PREDICTION: In. Top 8. Better be or there are gonna be some pissed off people in the Idol blogosphere.

Amelia Eisenhauer

WHY SHE’S OUT: The inclusion of Jeneve, the Avalon arrival and the Gianna surprise was a worst-case scenario for the multi-talented Ginja Ninja. She’s got a little more polish than those three, but it’s easier for Idol to kick her off when they’ve got three who bring something to the table Amelia would.
WHY SHE’S IN: Versatility goes a long way. She’s also had some pretty big moment to prove she’s just as good a singer as anyone on the show and all the instruments are part of the package. She seems to have a little more stage presence and a hell of an idea about good song selection.
PREDICTION: In, but I’m cautiously taking her over Olivia Rox because that Jeneve selection scares the hell out of me.

Trent Harmon

WHY HE’S OUT: He can’t dance and nobody really has any clue what kind of singer he is. Country? R&B? Pop? He could be a rapper for all we know. He’s not as strong a performer as the remaining WGWG and that won’t help his cause.
WHY HE’S IN: The ambiguity that is Trent plays in his favor. He doesn’t get nailed to one genre and starts a new one – R&BBQ, which is what happens when you sing country music with R&B soul. He’s gotten a lot of facetime and it really seems like producers want him on the show.
PREDICTION: In. He’s a good candidate for the singoff because we’ll find out in a hurry if he’s popular or if it’s something Idol’s cooked up.

Lee Jean

WHY HE’S OUT: Inch for inch he’s the most talented guy on the show, but without a huge voice or amazing musical skills, it’s tough to move on in the show. He’s the perfect “needs more seasoning” contestant and I think with what happened last year with Daniel Seavey, Idol is going to be cautious not to fall into that trap again.
WHY HE’S IN: Because he’s just as good as Seavey was, if not better. Lee can get by singing pop hits and avoiding big numbers, but if he makes it his success is going to be determined by how her performs in front of a live television audience. At 16 you really don’t know what you’re going to get.
PREDICTION: Out. But I hate that call. With Emily gone he might be the most marketable Idol left and that works in his favor, but I really think the Seavey Factor is going to play against him unless he delivers something like Jeneve Mitchell did last week.

CJ Johnson

WHY HE’S OUT: Pretty much for the same reasons as Kory, except he’s not a hipster is the negative and his gruff, bad-ass vibe doesn’t play as well as producers’ hoped. Plus, if he gets to the Top 10 there’s a damn good chance he rides the Fradiani Express all the way to the Final 2 and I don’t know that is something Idol wants to happen.
WHY HE’S IN: His experience is amazing. You can have whatever opinion you want about his song selections but you can’t question how he’s played them. He’s used to playing to the crowd and if you can do that, that’ll take you a long, long way.
PREDICTION: In, stealing a spot from Kory Wheeler. Be on the lookout though – if four of the girls get through or one of of the outs sneaks in, CJ might be on his way back to Nashville.

Adam Lasher

WHY HE’S OUT: He’s barely registered any screen time and that screams the producers don’t want him to do well. They want to avoid another WGWG champ, especially one who should have won last season if he wasn’t booted in favor of Mark Andrew and eventual champ Nick Fradiani. Also, Idol doesn’t want to deal with the potential Adam/Dalton/Mackenzie/Thomas final four. Also, keep in mind that he and CJ Johnson are the elder statesmen and the possibility of CJ taking a spot over Adam is there.
WHY HE’S IN: He’s the David Cook/Phillip Phillips of Season 15 except with a little more of an edge. We don’t have much to go off this season but if you check out last season’s audition he kills it every time he’s on stage. There’s a damn good chance if he’s in, he wins.
PREDICTION: In, but they’re gonna make him work for it. Adam gets in but they’ll force him into the sing-off to see if he can get the audience to vote for him to prove he has some sort of pull in the ratings.

Tristan McIntosh

WHY SHE’S OUT: She’s out because it seems illogical that Idol would carry Gianna Isabella and Tristan. They’re going to be looked at as one in the same and I’m almost surprised they didn’t swap Tristan to last week’s show to go heads up with Gianna. Add Jeneve into the mix and I just don’t see a Top 14 with three girls who can’t drive because while Idol thinks that’s how you get viewers, it’s clear teens aren’t the ones who drive ratings. They don’t realize there’s a huge portion of their young audience that would rather watch the performances on their own on YouTube than live and that isn’t helping young Tristan at all.
WHY SHE’S IN: She’s got a great story. The military mom thing isn’t going to harm her cause one bit and there is some talent in there.
PREDICTION: Out. With Sonika, La’Porsha and Gianna in, Tristan would have to surpass them in the ranks.

Dalton Rapattoni

WHY HE’S OUT: Too theatrical for Idol? I have no idea. With what he’s brought to the table, I can’t see him not being Top 8, so let’s just go with too theatrical and leave it at that.
WHY HE’S IN: He’s made himself the most versatile male contestant the show has had since David Cook. His ability to transform songs everyone know and manipulate them into whatever he damn well pleases while making them sound good isn’t going to hurt his chances. He’s got a built in audience and if he’s eliminated, it’d be the shock of the season.
PREDICTION: In. Just send him to the Top 8 now, we’ll see how America reacts.

Olivia Rox

WHY SHE’S OUT: Numbers, numbers, numbers. While Emily Brooke’s elimination seems to open the door for Olivia, the amount of guys they need to take to make the show not look fix isn’t helping her cause. Plus she seems wicked nice, like so nice where if it was her and Amelia standing up there for the last spot Olivia would just say “Oh, she can have it. I’ll figure something out.”
WHY SHE’S IN: Emily Brooke’s out so that opens the door for a tall, good-looking, up-and-coming white pop princess. The Jax comparison has been thrown out there but Olivia’s not Jax and really isn’t trying to be; she’s got a tremendous amount of versatility and can they can package her just about any way they want.
PREDICTION: Out. I’m taking Amelia over her for the final girls’ spot because I can’t see Idol going to the Top 14 with only five guys. If she’s in that’s bad news for one of the guys on the cusp and worse news the girls hoping to make it through. If Manny’s the person most hurt by this stupid format, Olivia’s No. 2 on that list. I already hate not putting her in.

Manny Torres

WHY HE’S OUT: There’s a glut of WGWG and while Manny is a HGWG, it’s a tough call to say he’s above some of the others.
WHY HE’S IN: Don’t discount his talent or the Hispanic heritage. American Idol doesn’t want it’s last season to be whiter than Wonder Bread and if it comes down to one spot between him and, say, Kory Wheeler or CJ Johnson and Manny crushes it Wednesday, he might find himself in the Top 14.
PREDICTION: Out. From what we’ve seen, it seems to be a simple case of a numbers game. If anyone was hurt by Idol not going the traditional 24 auditions, fan vote to 10 with two wild cards, I really think it was Manny.

Kory Wheeler

WHY HE’S OUT: He doesn’t have Dalton or Mackenzie Bourg’s dreamy look, he isn’t as musically inclined as Adam and he’s not a badass like CJ. Of the GWG, he’s closer to the bottom than the top and the last hipster on the show – Alex Preston – had an iffy relationship with the viewers.
WHY HE’S IN: While everyone’s been looking at the hunks and the guys who can play, Kory’s been sneakily one of the better all-around contestants we’ve seen. He’s an unassuming Idol, the kind of contestant you want to hang out with because he seems like a genuinely down-to-earth human being who wouldn’t mind sitting at a bar, trading stories and hammering down buffalo wings after one too many drinks.
PREDICTION: Out. There’s a shot it comes down to CJ and Kory and picking one of them is like picking which one of my kids is my favorite because it’s different every day. This is one where I’m hoping I’m wrong because I’d love to see what Kory could do in the Top 10 format.

Shelbie Z

WHY SHE’S OUT: Idol is avoiding country music at all costs this season? No idea. Maybe she falls flat on her face Wednesday night, but seeing how she’s dropping bombs every time she steps on stage, I really can’t think of a good reason not to include her.
WHY SHE’S IN: Shelbie is the best pure singer of the Wednesday group and probably the best female voice left on the show. With Emily Brooke and Jenna Renae gone, the only country artist left is Jeneve and she’s a different type of country.
PREDICTION: She has to be in. There’s no way you don’t include her unless you’re planning on showing her and the other Voice contestants the door just to prove a point.

So my pre-show picks are Adam Lasher, Dalton Rapattoni, CJ Johnson, Trent Harmon, Jenn Blosil, Shelbie Z and Amelia Eisenhauer. Kory Wheeler and Olivia Rox are my tough cuts but there’s a decent shot they flip with CJ and Amelia. If there’s a surprise of the night, it’ll be Lee and if he’s in, I cannot imagine what that means for the rest of the field.